Wind Power Scenario Tree Tool: Development and Methodology

Driven by a trend towards renewable forms of generation, in particular wind, the nature of power system operation is changing. With respect to wind power, the uncertainty of the wind becomes an issue which must be considered. Through the use of wind forecasting, this uncertainty may be managed. The error inherent in forecasting will impact system reliability and cost as will inaccuracies in assumptions about the forecast error. This paper presents the methodology adopted for use in a Scenario Tree Tool constructed to allow for closer examination of the effect of forecast error assumptions and properties in unit commitment scheduling models.